CICC believes that 2020-2025 will be the key 5 years for China to leapfrog toward advanced autonomous driving. According to Roadmap 2.0, China is expected to achieve highly automated driving on highways and valet parking by 2025; highly automated driving on suburban and urban roads is expected to be achieved around 2030; fully automated driving is expected to be achieved after 2035. (CICC report)
A major driver for China’s conversion to EVs is the dual credit system – where auto makers get credits for compliance features like energy efficiency, or they can buy credits from others, and face penalties if they do not make enough new energy vehicles (NEVs). Under the current NEV regulations, volumes of NEVs for 2021 must more than double from 2020. In 2021, HSBC estimates there needs to be 1.3M sales of NEVs (passenger vehicles) for the overall market to be compliant vs. 0.6M in 2020. This will intensify competition as OEMs will have to meet volume requirements, launch quality products and ensure sufficient scale and profitability. (HSBC report)
In 2020, the top 10 cities made up 48% of new energy vehicles (NEV) volumes in China. The top 6 cities have plate restrictions for ICE vehicles (Beijing is an exception and has plate restrictions on both ICE and NEV plates). HSBC sees part of the NEV demand in those cities as driven by ICE plate restrictions. (HSBC report)
Mini will stop selling gas cars by 2030. The brand also plans to introduce its last gas model in 2025 and for half its sales to be electric by 2027. The plan would make Mini the first brand in BMW Group to go all-electric. (Engadget, Electrek, Der Spiegel, Auto Home)
